Exit polls must be flooding your TV screens and social media feeds right now, but how accurate have these exit polls been in the last few general elections? Let’s take a look.2004: When Exit Polls Got it Completely WrongIn 2004, the exit polls were completely off the mark as the Congress-led UPA defied all the pollsters to oust the Vajpayee-led NDA government from power.
2009: Exit Polls Off the Mark AgainIn 2009, almost all the exit polls gave the UPA a slim lead over the NDA, but the results proved pollsters wrong once again, with the Congress-led alliance securing a lead of more than 100 seats.
2014: Most Exit Polls Predict NDA Win, But BJP Secures Majority on Its OwnIn 2014, all exit polls showed an NDA victory but barring Today’s Chanakya, none of them could correctly predict that the BJP led by Narendra Modi would storm to power with an absolute majority of its own, a feat achieved for the first time since 1984.
As the last three general elections show, exit polls can often be misleading. In 2004, they were completely wrong and in 2009 too, they were off the mark. They did get the trend right in 2014 though, predicting the Congress’ decimation at the hands of a Modi-led BJP.Will the pollsters get it right in 2019? Well, there’s really no way to know till 23 May! (The Quint)