Season’s first cold wave to hit Kashmir towards weekend, below normal minimum temperatures expected this winter
A Western Disturbance is currently affecting Jammu and Kashmir. As the WD is weak, it won’t be causing any rain/snow over most parts.
From 09 onwards, significant drop is expected in minimum temperatures.
At most places it will stay in the range of -3.5°C -6.5°C, while at a few places it can drop up-to -10°C [maximum drop is expected on 10th night & 11th night.] [Much Harsher temperatures are expected after 15 December, with indications maximum temperatures will also stay below normal. As the forecasts keep changing, A separate forecast on this will be issued during the next week.)]
While IMD has predicted above normal minimum temperatures this winter, In my opinion (analysis) minimum temperatures will stay below normal.
Features of last winter match with this winter and also from the past trend it has been observed that J&K sees below normal minimum temperatures when La Niña conditions are present during the winter months.
Regarding maximum temperatures, they are very likely to stay around normal or above normal (most likely to stay above normal).
Precipitation is likely to be below normal during this winter. However, this doesn’t mean that chances of any heavy snowfall event aren’t there.
It means over a period of 90 days (when taken on an average scale), precipitation amount is likely to be below normal. Slight chances are there of around normal precipitation.
A Western Disturbance (active, however not strong) is expected around 15 December that may cause light snowfall in some plains (Chances = 25%). But in the coming days, a separate forecast regarding this will be issued when accuracy improves.